From Trusted Friends to Enemies – How Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations Turned into Open War
From Trusted Friends to Enemies – How Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations Turned into Open War
The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and especially with the Taliban, has undergone a significant transformation over the past three decades. In the 1990s, Islamabad openly supported the Taliban, but after the US intervention in 2001, the relationship softened to a quieter cooperation. Since the Taliban took power in 2021, the relationship has gradually turned into estrangement and then open hostility. We can therefore state that the escalation of this conflict has been a recurring risk for years. However, the conflict carries significant political, societal and economical costs for both countries, while there is no quick solution in sight. Moreover, the tension goes beyond bilateral relations, it could have destabilizing effect on the security and economic prospects of the wider region.
Conflict timeline of 2026
The current phase of this contentious period roughly began in February, after the Afghan government launched an attack on Pakistani military bases along the disputed border. Pakistan responded within hours, bombing several Afghan border provinces as well as the capital, Kabul. What made the situation more serious than previous clashes were two things: first, it was the first time Islamabad had launched an attack on urban areas in its neighbor’s territory. Second, Pakistan’s defense minister described the situation as an “open war”. In the last months, tensions further escalated and the attacks have been ongoing ever since, with varying intensity.
Inherent source of conflict since the 19th century
As I wrote above, the hostile relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan dates back a long time. The 1893 treaty that established the so-called Durand Line not only drew a border in the region but also laid the foundation for enduring regional tension. The nearly 2 700-kilometer border split the predominantly Pashtun-populated areas. Relations between the two countries were not smooth in the decades that followed. After the creation of Pakistan in 1947, Afghanistan feared that its more powerful eastern neighbor was seeking a dominant role in the region. In response, it supported the idea of “Pashtunistan” – the creation of an ethnically separate state from northwest Pakistan – and sought a strategic counterweight through relations with India. Although the Pashtunistan issue remains a sensitive issue, in recent decades the bilateral relationship has been increasingly burdened by ideological differences and security policy differences, which have now escalated into open confrontation.
Today, the focus of tension is primarily the Pakistani Taliban, the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Islamabad accuses Kabul of allowing the TTP to establish itself on Afghan territory and then carry out bombings and armed attacks in Pakistan. In the past year or two, there has been a significant increase in attacks against Pakistani security forces and civilians, most of which have been claimed by the TTP. According to reports, most of the suicide bombers in Pakistan were Afghan nationals, which further exacerbates the crisis of trust between Kabul and Islamabad.
This is particularly sensitive issue given that the Taliban, in the Doha agreement – which largely contributed to the decision to withdraw US and allied forces from Afghanistan – pledged not to allow third parties to use Afghan territory for terrorist activities against other states. Kabul has consistently denied that it would allow anyone to use Afghan territory to attack other countries, including Pakistan. In fact, according to media reports, Kabul is refusing to hand over the TTP leaders because it believes that Pakistan’s conflict with the group is an internal matter that Islamabad should resolve through direct negotiations. Pakistan, however, is not giving in; it has targeted suspected TTP hideouts in Afghanistan in military operations. The rhetoric has also hardened. The Pakistani defense minister warned in the fall of 2025 that if Afghanistan did not extradite TTP members on its territory, an open war could break out between the two countries.
All efforts to resolve the impasse over TTP have failed. Although the Taliban leadership has organized direct talks between the TTP and the government in Islamabad, China, Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have also tried to mediate. However, the talks have instead exposed fundamental differences between the parties.
What is next
Although Pakistan has clear military superiority, a protracted conflict is not a good solution for it. Moreover, a large-scale military operation could easily unite Afghan society against external intervention. A protracted conflict could distract Pakistani security forces from dealing with internal terrorist threats, activate radical Islamist groups to carry out further actions, and place a heavy financial burden on a government already struggling with economic difficulties. It could also provoke serious political resistance at home, especially in the predominantly Pashtun province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Islamabad is therefore also putting pressure on Kabul through economic means. Nearly 3 million Afghans have been deported from Pakistan in recent years, which is putting a serious burden on the Afghan government. In addition, Pakistan regularly closes key border crossings. Trade restrictions are particularly sensitive for landlocked Afghanistan, but they are also costly for Pakistan. The uncertainty of Pakistani routes is also accelerating Kabul's efforts to favor Iranian transit routes that bypass Pakistan, opening alternative connections to India and Europe.
This conflict also undermines Pakistan's ambition to emerge in the region as a stabilizing force, a reliable peacemaker, a role it is also striving for in the context of the Iran-Israeli-American war. Because it is crucial that we do not forget how fragile regional security architectures truly are: connectivity efforts cannot be meaningfully interpreted when they are burdened by conflicts, and when the region’s embedded, underlying sources of conflict continuously reproduce instability.
Author: Blanka Benkő-Kovács, advisor - LCTS, LUPS
Image source: Wikimedia Commons